【权威观点】香港将实现第3个正GDP增长

原标题:HongKongsetfor3rdyearofpositiveGDPgrowth:official

香港GDP的持续增长得益于私人消费复苏、大型活动带动、楼市与股市企稳以及资本的持续流入。海南大学一带一路研究院院长梁海明教授表示,高附加值旅游业和活跃的资本市场(包括强劲的内地企业上市势头)巩固了经济增长动能。

HongKongPhoto:VCG

HongKongPhoto:VCGHongKong'seconomyisontracktopostathirdconsecutiveyearofgrowthandisexpectedtoexpandfurthernextyear,whileupcominglabormarketfiguresarelikelytoshowsteadyconditions,PaulChanMo-po,financialsecretaryoftheHongKongSpecialAdministrativeRegion(HKSAR),saidinablogpostonSunday.

HongKong'seconomyhascontinuedtoimprovethisyear,withlocalGDPposingpositivegrowthfor11consecutivequarters.Thecity'srealGDPexpandedby3.8percentinthethirdquarter,thestrongestquarterlyperformancein18months,supportedbysteadygainsinexports,consumptionandinvestment,Chansaid.

WithinterestratestrendinglowerandChina-UStradetensionseasingnow,theHKSARgovernmentholdsacautiouslyoptimisticviewoffourth-quarterprospectsandhasreviseditsfull-year2025growthforecastupto3.2percent,abovetheearlier2-3percentrange.Ifrealized,thiswouldmarkthethirdstraightyearofpost-pandemicGDPexpansion,accordingtoChan.

Duringthefirsthalfofthisyear,theUS'unilateraltariffsbroughtsignificantexternalpressureanduncertainty.Evenso,HongKongmaintaineditsfreeportpolicyandrespondedwithasetofcoherentandpredictablemeasures.Withstrongsupportfromthecentralgovernmentandjointeffortsacrossthecity,HongKongmanagedtomakesolidprogress,hesaid.

AccordingtoChan,HongKong'sgoodsexportsexpandedby11.3percentyear-on-yearinthefirstthreequarters,ledbystrongshipmentstotheChinesemainlandandASEAN,whichrose14.6percentand27.1percent,respectively.Thisreflectsbothfavorableconditionsandyearsofgroundwork,fromexpandingHongKong'snetworkoftradingpartnerstohelpingthemainland-basedfirms"goglobal"andstrengtheningthecity'sroleasatwo-wayplatformandakeynodeindeepeningAsia-Pacificeconomicintegration.

Improvementacrossmultiplesectors,togetherwitha12-percentgrowthinvisitorarrivalsto41millioninthefirst10months,hasliftedsentimentinHongKong'scateringandretailindustries.

PrivateconsumptioninHongKongroseby2.1percentinthethirdquarter.Withthebroadereconomystrengtheningandmarketexpectationsturningpositive,labormarketdatawhichwillbereleasedonTuesdayarelikelytoshowsteadyconditions,Chansaid.

HongKong'sGDPisexpectedtoexpandfurtherin2026.Globalinstitutionsforecastmoderategrowthintheglobaleconomynextyear,withtheChinesemainlandandthewholeAsiaaskeydrivers,Channoted.

HongKong'scontinuedGDPgrowthissupportedbyrecoveringprivateconsumption,theliftfrommegaevents,asteadierpropertyandequitymarket,andsustainedcapitalinflows.Highvalue-addedtourismandanactivecapitalmarket,includingstrongmainlandlistings,havereinforcedeconomicmomentum,LiangHaimingischairmanoftheChinaSilkRoadiValleyResearchInstitute,anddeanofHainanUniversityBeltandRoadResearchInstitutetoldtheGlobalTimes.

Emergingindustriesareexpanding,traditionalsectorsareupgrading,andconstructionprojectsareprogressing,drivinginvestmentandemployment.ThesedevelopmentsunderlineHongKong'seconomicresilienceanditscapacitytosustainbroad-basedgrowthdespiteexternaluncertainties,Liangsaid.

原标题:《【权威观点】香港将实现第3个正GDP增长》